What’s holding up rate cuts?

What’s holding up rate cuts?

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept rates on hold in November, despite inflation falling to 2.8%, which is well within the RBA’s preferred 2-3% inflation range.

So, what’s holding up rate cuts?

And why does it seem like the goalposts keep shifting?

It turns out the RBA is concerned that part of the decline in inflation “reflects temporary cost of living relief” (think the $300 power bill credit).

Basically, the RBA is worried that inflation remains too high and the outlook is still a little too uncertain to make any rate cuts right now.

Speak with Brendon Cowan at Finance Broker Melbourne for guidance that’s tailored to you.

Banks expect rates to fall in early 2025

What the RBA is aiming for, is “sustainably returning inflation to target” (that’s the 2-3% band). And it cautioned this could still be a way off.

That makes the chances of a festive season rate cut at the RBA’s next meeting (December 10) unlikely.

For the record, RBA Governor Michele Bullock didn’t give any hint on the direction of interest rates – either up or down.

The banks, however, are a lot more open – and optimistic – about their interest rate expectations.

The Commonwealth Bank, which had previously tipped a December rate cut, is now pencilling in the following meeting (February 18) for the first of what could be a string of rate cuts.

Westpac, ANZ and AMP also all anticipate the RBA to cut the cash rate as early as February, while NAB is forecasting a rate cut as early as March 2025.

Brendon Cowan at Finance Broker Melbourne is here to help.

Why wait? Variable rates are already falling

While all this may make for a happy new year, February may seem a long way off – especially if you’re sweating on a rate cut (and remember, there are no guarantees).

But you may not have to wait around for the economy or the RBA to shift in your favour.

It could be possible to give yourself a rate cut in time for Christmas.

According to Mozo, growing expectations of future rate cuts have seen a number of lenders take the knife to their variable rates, with some cutting their variable rates below the 6% mark.

This may be helping to drive a 2.1% uptick in the volume of home loans being refinanced over the past month.

Speak with Finance Broker Melbourne today about your loan needs.

Talk to us today

Waiting is never much fun. Refinancing now could help free up your household budget and contribute to a little extra Christmas cheer.

If that sounds good to you, contact us for a review of your home loan. We can run through your situation and let you know if there are ways to save on your current home loan interest rate.

Book an obligation free call with Brendon Cowan at Finance Broker Melbourne today 

Contact Brendon

Disclaimer: The content of this article is general in nature and is presented for informative purposes. It is not intended to constitute tax or financial advice, whether general or personal nor is it intended to imply any recommendation or opinion about a financial product. It does not take into consideration your personal situation and may not be relevant to circumstances. Before taking any action, consider your own particular circumstances and seek professional advice. This content is protected by copyright laws and various other intellectual property laws. It is not to be modified, reproduced or republished without prior written consent.

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